Al Ross explains why he thinks love won't be in the air when Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano meet on Monday 17th February in La Liga.
Unsurprisingly, Barcelona are expected to win this one and win it easily. I wouldn't take the outright price on them - it's too skinny - but I've no notes on the assumption that they'll win. Despite Rayo Vallecano's high position in La Liga, anything but a home win would be a shock given the way Barca are playing. 9 wins, 2 draws, no defeats in 2025.
So if not the outright, where is the value?
Well goals is the obvious one. In their last 11 games, it's been 41 goals for the home side. Vallecano can be stubborn on the road, so I'm not expecting a blowout, and there's no value in backing Barcelona goals.
Go further into the markets and Robert Lewandowski is a short price. I'd fancy Fermin Lopez if he wasn't suspended, but have a look at Ferran Torres who'll be leaned on more in attack without Lopez in the side. He's been in and out of the side recently, but has been effective when used - 5 goals in his last 3 starts. 21/10 anythime goalscorer with BetMGM. Just make sure he starts before you back him!
Corners are a play here - only 4 teams are averaging 10 or more corners per game in La Liga - these are two of them. Don't take corner handicaps, Barca like to concede as well as win them. Over 10.5 with Hills at Even money is fine.
But the value is on the cards.
There have been at least 4 cards in 9 of these teams' last 10 meetings, at least four in each of Rayo Vallecano's last 12 league games, and at least 4 in each of Rayo Vallecano's last 9 away league games. There were three in their game at Getafe in August - that's the only time this season the over 3.5 cards hasn't landed in a Vallecano away league game. They're not a dirty side, but they play with a high amount of intensity and pressing. It's one of the reasons I can't see them getting anything from this - not on the large pitch at the Nou Camp Given that stat, and given Barca's last 2 league matches have seen 15 cards in total, and given that referee Mario Melero has shown over 3.5 cards in every single game he's officiated in 2025, 10/11 for over 3.5 cards with BetVictor is a great price. Hills will offer 5/2 on Over 2 Goals, Over 3 Cards, Over 10 Corners if you want to combine them all, but if you want something to back that's odds against, I'd just up the card count and go with Over 4.5 cards at 17/10 with Paddy Power.
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