Final Day of the Premier League - who takes the Champions League places?
- James M Buttler
- 31 minutes ago
- 3 min read
James Buttler looks at the three key matches as Newcastle, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa reach decision day in this season's Premier League.
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
A high-stakes final-day clash sees Nottingham Forest host Chelsea with UEFA Champions League qualification on the line. Forest, sitting seventh, are guaranteed European football but could snatch a top-five finish and a coveted UCL spot if they beat Chelsea and either Aston Villa or Newcastle drop points. That’s a tall order for Forest, especially given their recent struggles at home (D1, L2) and a painful memory of last season’s 3-2 home defeat to the Blues.
Chelsea, meanwhile, know a win seals fifth, while a draw might suffice depending on other results. Enzo Maresca’s men are in strong form, winning six of their last seven, but their away form remains a concern with just one win in their last ten away league games and no points taken from sides currently in the top eight.
In a game which guarantees drama and with both teams having to go for it, I think BTTS is a must play bet. Forest have attacking threats and Chelsea have conceded in five of their last six away games. BTTS is only 6/10, but it’s a solid play and good enough for my accumulator. If you want a bigger price, perhaps over 3.5 match goals at 9/5 might float your boat.
Manchester United v Aston Villa
Manchester United close out one of their worst-ever Premier League campaigns with a critical clash against top-five hopefuls Aston Villa. After a demoralising 1-0 Europa League final loss to Tottenham, pressure is mounting on Ruben Amorim, whose position looks increasingly fragile. United are at risk of finishing as low as 17th, but history offers a glimmer of hope: only Arsenal (23) have won more final-day Premier League matches than the Red Devils (22), but they are playing against a backdrop of putting up all of their players for sale amid mounting financial pressure.
Villa, meanwhile, must win to keep their Champions League hopes alive. Unai Emery’s side are in red-hot domestic form with nine wins in their last 11 league games, but Old Trafford has traditionally been a nightmare. Villa have just one win in their last 26 final-day away league fixtures (D7, L18) and 40 Premier League defeats to United overall.
It’s a must win for Villa so I’m anticipating goals against a weak United defence. Over 2.5 goals and a Villa win floats my boat at 7/5.
Newcastle v Everton
Champions League football is within touching distance for Newcastle United, who must beat Everton to give themselves the best shot at securing a top-four finish. The Magpies sit fourth on goal difference heading into the final day, and despite a narrow 1-0 defeat to Arsenal last weekend, confidence should remain high thanks to seven wins in their previous nine league games.
St James’ Park has been a fortress of late, with Newcastle winning their last six home matches in the league. Historically strong finishers, the Magpies have won eight of their last ten final-day games, and they’ll be determined to maintain that trend.
For Everton, this game carries less weight. Locked into 13th place regardless of the result, motivation may be a concern. While they’ve impressed in recent weeks, winning two on the bounce, the Toffees have struggled in final-day fixtures (W1, D1, L6 in their last eight) and haven’t won at St James’ Park since 2019.
Taking Newcastle to win looks a strong play and Over 2.5 match goals is too. That bet is priced at 4/5.
James' Final Day Premier League Treble
If you put the three picks into an accumulator it comes to 5.75/1.