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France v Portugal Euro 2024 Quarter-Final Betting Preview

One team lost to Georgia and needed penalties to beat Slovenia. The other has scored three goals all tournament, two own goals and a penalty. Don't expect a classic.

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Portugal v France

France are the favourites, and rightly so, but Portugal aren’t a one-man team any more. Someone should probably tell that to their veteran striker, but it’s true. If you’re able to overlook the Slovenia shutout and the crazy Georgia loss, at a time when Portugal had already qualified from the group, then their record over the past few years is excellent.

Their squad doesn’t bat deep in quality terms, but their starting eleven will give anyone in world football a game. And that’s the point. Kylian Mbappe is better than Cristiano Ronaldo, and they've taken the headlines, but this isn’t just about those two, or going man-for-man through the squads and matching them up.

Portugal have had more shots, more shots on target, more passes into the area made fewer saves and have attempted and completed more crosses than France.

The oddly-priced 41/17 at Vbet looks big on a Portugal win. That’s as long as Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t become the problem. So often he's been Portugal's solution, but against Slovenia he was the problem. CR7 made it all about CR7, and I don't just mean the penalty miss. Mad angles of freekicks, histrionics, the works. Let's not make it about him. Contrast Ronaldo’s 5/1 first goalscorer price to Bruno Fernandes’s 11/1 with Paddy Power. 10 goals in his last 16 international appearances makes Fernandes a tasty price. I say First goalscorer rather than Anytime because I expect this to be tight. 1-0 Portugal at 8/1 would not surprise me, but the 41/17 on the outright is too big for the former champions who've proven they can upset the apple cart.


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