James Buttler looks ahead to Monday evening's Premier League match between the Cottagers and the Bees and finds the very best bets.
One point separates Fulham and Brentford as they prepare to face off on Monday evening. I’m nailing my colours to the mast early on this one and tipping a victory for the Cottagers at 21/20, because the Bees have not been buzzing away from home, and Craven Cottage is not an easy place to go.
The Bees are home birds
Let’s start with Brentford, the highest placed of the two sides, and boss Thomas Frank must be wondering why his team are so poor on the road. The Bees haven’t picked up a point in four defeats on their travels and yet in five home matches they have four wins and a draw. They’ve scored 15 goals at home and just three away. It’s like they become a different side as soon as they leave TW8.
And, even when they’ve manoeuvred into good match positions, they’ve lost 11 points and been ahead three times in their last four away defeats. Only hosts Fulham are worse on that metric. But they were two goals down against Ipswich Town last weekend before winning 4-3 with a last gasp winner from Bryan Mbeumo.
As I’ve said, Fulham are rubbish at holding on to leads too. Imagine where they and Brentford would be if they were more ruthless. Certainly, higher than the ninth and 10th spots they occupy before the weekend gets underway. They were ahead at Everton last weekend and then Beto scored a 90th minute leveller. But in-form Villa are the only team to visit Craven Cottage this season and taste success, with two victories and a draw prior to that.
Are goals a play?
Marco Silva’s side have only won one of the last 13 home H2Hs (D6, L6), that’s a run that dates back to April 1990. But all runs come to an end, unless you’re Forest Gump.
So, I think Fulham win, and there will be goals too. Despite their terrible away record, Brentford have scored in their last three away defeats, so Fulham and BTTS at 5/2 squeezes the price up a bit. BTTS on its own is 4/7.
If we’re giving Brentford a goal, Mbeumo is the most likely scorer. His brace against Ipswich took his tally to eight for the season, second only to Erling Haaland. In matches in London he’s bagged 11 in 13. On the basis that he’s the second most prolific EPL scorer this season, he’s fifth on the list for this match. The 5/2 on him to bag anytime is a standout price.
James’ Premier League Tips
Fulham to win at 21/20
Fulham win and BTTS at 5/2
Bryan Mbeumo to score anytime at 5/2
If you put those selections into a BetBuilder the price is 10/1 with BetMGM.
As always, please gamble responsibly.