James Buttler looks ahead to Sunday afternoon's Championship match between the Lions and the Clarets and finds the very best bets.
Burnley start the weekend in second place and travel to London aiming to keep the pressure on leaders Sunderland. The visitors are now unbeaten in nine matches with four wins and five draws in that period. But they find themselves five points behind the leaders, who have every chance of making that lead eight on Saturday. If the Clarets don’t want to lose ground at the top a win at The Den is vital for Scott Parker’s team.
Millwall are in 10th and are unbeaten in four league games, winning the last two 1-0 at home to Plymouth and away at Swansea. Neil Harris’s team have taken 16 points from their first 12 Championship matches and have steadied their slightly inconsistent campaign. The visit of Burnley is the first of back-to-back home matches against sides at the top with Leeds to follow on Wednesday. It’s going to be a stern test of the Lions’ promotion credentials.
Will there be goals?
Goals have been scarce for the Clarets with the nine scored in their first two matches proving to be a false dawn as that’s been followed by eight in the next 10 ganes, albeit only conceding three in the process. Millwall have only scored three goals in their last five league fixtures, so this match doesn’t scream ‘goal-fest’.
The last meeting between the teams was a 1-1 draw in February 2023 at The Den. Under 2.5 match goals has landed in the last three meetings between the sides in all competitions and therefore Under 2.5 match goals looks a decent punt at 1/2, although it’s not the most exciting price. If you split stakes and take Under 1.5 match goals too, that gives you a price of 13/8. Or just play the latter and hope the teams’ poor scoring form continues.
This fixture has been bossed by Burnley in recent times with the last six H2Hs in London seeing Burnley win three and three matches were drawn. Again, only one of those games, a 2-2 in November 2013, ended over 2.5 match goals.
Who scores?
I’m sure a lot of people will see Burnley in second and play them to win at 9/5, but the draw has plenty of appeal at 21/10. A repeat of the result of two seasons ago at 1-1 is a 21/4 shot.
If you’re looking for a scorer, Josh Brownhill has five in the league this season, with two of those coming in away matches. Millwall’s Duncan Watmore has five goals too, but he’s not bagged at home since the end of August. I’ve got to be honest, there’s nobody I’d back with my own money, so I can’t suggest you do.
In summary it may be a match that is an unders play and I don’t see Burnley having it all their own way. The draw is something we often don’t back in football, but they certainly do happen!
James’ Championship Tips
Under 1.5 match goals at 13/8
The Draw at 21/10
A 1-1 correct score at 21/4
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