Sam Hart gives us his best bets for the first day of third round matches.
It’s Betting Radio. I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas, but now we are back in for Dartmas and the third round of the World Darts Championship. We now get into a best of seven sets format rather than best of five, and this is where the players who suit the longer format really come into their own.
Afternoon Session
Two sessions, and the afternoon session has some cracking matches involved. We have Heta vs Woodhouse, Clayton vs Gurney and Bunting vs Razma. The match in the afternoon I am keen to focus on is Jonny Clayton vs Daryl Gurney. Clayton beat Michael Mansell in a cracking second round tie that went all the way and I am sure that would have settled the world number seven in Clayton. He averaged 92 in that match against Mansell and threw 5 more 180s than his opponent. His finishing, however, wasn’t quite at its best with only a 35.71% on his doubles. So look, Jonny has gained his pre-Christmas experience and will be hoping to kick on from there. Clayton’s opponent Gurney has a similar match that went all the way. He beat Florian Hempel, who I know the Germans were confident would have a good run, so Gurney did well to see off Hempel. Daryl threw a 98 average and was close to 50% on his doubles. So based on those stats, it seems that Gurney could be on top. Bet365 has Clayton at 4/5 and Gurney at 11/10. Daryl Gurney leads the head-to-heads between the two players, and I feel this could get tight. So for the treble for the night, I want to add in the over 5.5 sets at 12/25 with Bet365. This will tie into evening session matches.
Evening Session
The evening session has another three games. This could not be much better as an evening of darts with Price vs Cullen, Wattimena vs Wright, and Humphries vs Kenny. The opening match of the night is Gerwyn Price vs Joe Cullen. This could be a really feisty affair with Gerwyn Price being a vocal player on stage and Joe Cullen being a feisty player off stage. If you haven't seen the interview with Cullen after his match with Nijman, it is certainly worth a watch. Price is the favourite for this game, which won’t please Cullen at all. Gerwyn leads the head-to-heads between the two players, but based on the last matches, you would probably have to fancy Cullen a bit here. He beat one of my tournament fancies, Wessel Nijman, 3-0 and played really well to do so. Wessel is a big scorer, and Joe Cullen managed to keep up with him during the game. He put up a close to 100 average, and he looked like he played with a decent rhythm on stage. Gerwyn Price is a player who a lot are saying is coming back to his best, and if that's the case, considering what's happened so far on this half of the draw, he would have to fancy his chance of getting to the semifinals. I know Price won 3-0, but he did nothing fancy in doing so. So he will have to step it up. So I am going to go for a Joe Cullen win here, as I think the prices are too far apart. So the 7/4 with Unibet on Joe Cullen to beat Gerwyn Price will be the second leg of the treble.
I do think Wattimena will beat Peter Wright in the second match on the night, and I do think he is now the underdog to watch, as when he wants to, Wattimena can play some exceptional darts, but the final game of the night is where the final selection will come from.
The world number one is back in action as Luke Humphries takes on Nick Kenny. Cool Hand Luke hasn't been seen in action since the opening night, so he has had a long break between his second and third round matches, and whether this plays to his favour, I don’t know. Nick Kenny, his opponent, has been the big surprise of the tournament so far, as he has come through his first two matches against Stowe Buntz and Raymond van Barneveld. He showed full emotion after beating Raymond and made it clear he is having plenty of fun up on that Ally Pally stage. Will he beat the world number one? probably not, but could he rock him? Absolutely. He is going to have to step it up on that 88 average he has been producing, but he is against a player who can sometimes match his opponents average and just grind them down. So I do feel that this could go over the 4.5 sets and that is priced fairly at 43/50 with Unibet.
So the treble for the day is over 5.5 sets between Clayton and Gurney, Joe Cullen to beat Price, and over 4.5 sets between Humphries and Kenny. The treble is roughly a 13/2 shot, and if Cullen can get past Price, I would be confident in this happening.
I will be back again with a preview of Saturday's action. Until then, though, do keep enjoying the festive period of sport, but always gamble responsibly.